The story of the game
Win probability after every play. Hover or drag to relive any moment.
Decided by 4 points with 5 lead changes and 32 ties. The game saw 17 major win probability swings, and the losing team's chances peaked at 97%.
Q4, 1:05, Brunson (NYK): Brunson 12' Driving Floating Jump Shot (45 PTS). It swung the win probability by +31.0 points.
Q4, 1:29, Brunson (NYK): MISS Brunson 15' Step Back Jump Shot. It swung the win probability by -19.6 points.
Brunson (NYK) 10 pts
Turning points
The plays that moved winning odds the most.
Brunson 12' Driving Floating Jump Shot (45 PTS)
Harper 9' Turnaround Jump Shot (25 PTS)
Anunoby Cutting Dunk Shot (9 PTS) (Hart 2 AST)
Vassell 17' Pullup Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Harper 4 AST)
Brunson 2' Running Finger Roll Layup (40 PTS)
Castle Tip Dunk Shot (6 PTS)
Who actually swung it
Players ranked by how much they moved the win probability, not by points scored.
Postgame read
NYK beat SAS 94-90 by 4 points.
The game turned at Q4, 1:05: Brunson 12' Driving Floating Jump Shot (45 PTS). That single play moved SAS's chance of winning from 54% to 33%. No other moment shifted the game more, and it went NYK's way.
No one influenced the outcome more than Brunson of NYK. Across 53 plays, his actions moved the win probability by a combined 155 percentage points, the most of any player on the floor.
The tensest moment for a comeback came at Q3, 6:27, with NYK down 5 points. The model put their chance of pulling it off at 16%. In other words: difficult, but not nothing.
The strongest run that didn't fully show on the scoreboard came at Q3, 8:49, with the game tilting SAS's way. The play in the middle of it: Wembanyama 10' Turnaround Jump Shot (14 PTS).
These numbers come from ClutchCast's champion model, the winner of a competition between six models. The winner is judged on how honest its probabilities are on games it never trained on, not just how often it picks the right winner.