The story of the game
Win probability after every play. Hover or drag to relive any moment.
Decided by 1 point with 3 lead changes and 6 ties. The game saw 53 major win probability swings, and the losing team's chances peaked at 100%.
Q4, 0:02.1, Anunoby (NYK): Anunoby Tip Layup Shot (33 PTS). It swung the win probability by +53.2 points.
Q1, 2:53, Vassell (SAS): Vassell S.FOUL (P1.PN) (Z.Zarba). It swung the win probability by -17.2 points.
Alvarado (NYK) 5 pts, Anunoby (NYK) 5 pts, Brunson (NYK) 5 pts
Turning points
The plays that moved winning odds the most.
Brunson 27' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (34 PTS) (Alvarado 3 AST)
Anunoby Tip Layup Shot (33 PTS)
Brunson 6' Driving Floating Jump Shot (36 PTS)
Fox 26' 3PT Jump Shot (18 PTS) (Vassell 4 AST)
Anunoby 3PT Jump Shot (31 PTS) (Alvarado 2 AST)
Alvarado 25' 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Brunson 7 AST)
Who actually swung it
Players ranked by how much they moved the win probability, not by points scored.
Postgame read
NYK beat SAS 107-106 by 1 point.
The game turned at Q4, 2:21: Brunson 27' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (34 PTS) (Alvarado 3 AST). That single play moved NYK's chance of winning from 18% to 44%. No other moment shifted the game more, and it went NYK's way.
No one influenced the outcome more than Brunson of NYK. Across 51 plays, his actions moved the win probability by a combined 61 percentage points, the most of any player on the floor.
The tensest moment for a comeback came at Q1, 10:42, with NYK down 5 points. The model put their chance of pulling it off at 43%. In other words: very realistic, but not nothing.
The strongest run that didn't fully show on the scoreboard came at Q4, 1:47, with the game tilting NYK's way. The play in the middle of it: Anunoby S.FOUL (P2.PN) (Z.Zarba).
These numbers come from ClutchCast's champion model, the winner of a competition between six models. The winner is judged on how honest its probabilities are on games it never trained on, not just how often it picks the right winner.