The story of the game
Win probability after every play. Hover or drag to relive any moment.
Decided by 4 points with 6 lead changes and 16 ties. The game saw 18 major win probability swings, and the losing team's chances peaked at 83%.
Q4, 1:53, Castle (SAS): Castle 26' 3PT Jump Shot (21 PTS) (Wembanyama 6 AST). It swung the win probability by +22.6 points.
Q3, 0:33.5, Harper (SAS): Harper 25' 3PT Step Back Jump Shot (13 PTS). It swung the win probability by -19.1 points.
Brunson (NYK) 7 pts
Turning points
The plays that moved winning odds the most.
Harper 25' 3PT Step Back Jump Shot (13 PTS)
Clarkson 24' 3PT Step Back Jump Shot (10 PTS)
Wembanyama 30' 3PT Jump Shot (22 PTS) (Castle 4 AST)
Anunoby 3PT Jump Shot (28 PTS) (Hart 5 AST)
Vassell 25' 3PT Running Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Harper 3 AST)
Champagnie 26' 3PT Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Harper 4 AST)
Who actually swung it
Players ranked by how much they moved the win probability, not by points scored.
Postgame read
SAS beat NYK 115-111 by 4 points.
The game turned at Q3, 0:33.5: Harper 25' 3PT Step Back Jump Shot (13 PTS). That single play moved NYK's chance of winning from 54% to 30%. No other moment shifted the game more, and it went SAS's way.
No one influenced the outcome more than Wembanyama of SAS. Across 47 plays, his actions moved the win probability by a combined 147 percentage points, the most of any player on the floor.
The tensest moment for a comeback came at Q4, 0:12.2, with NYK down 5 points. The model put their chance of pulling it off at 12%. In other words: difficult, but not nothing.
The strongest run that didn't fully show on the scoreboard came at Q3, 0:49.4, with the game tilting NYK's way. The play in the middle of it: Clarkson 24' 3PT Step Back Jump Shot (10 PTS).
These numbers come from ClutchCast's champion model, the winner of a competition between six models. The winner is judged on how honest its probabilities are on games it never trained on, not just how often it picks the right winner.