The story of the game
Win probability after every play. Hover or drag to relive any moment.
Decided by 1 point with 5 lead changes and 24 ties. The game saw 21 major win probability swings, and the losing team's chances peaked at 84%.
Q4, 0:09.5, Brunson (NYK): Brunson Free Throw 1 of 2 (20 PTS). It swung the win probability by +46.6 points.
Q4, 0:39.3, Brunson (NYK): Brunson 13' Fadeaway Jumper (19 PTS). It swung the win probability by -21.5 points.
Wembanyama (SAS) 7 pts
Turning points
The plays that moved winning odds the most.
Wembanyama 1' Cutting Finger Roll Layup Shot (28 PTS) (Harper 3 AST)
Vassell 26' 3PT Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Fox 4 AST)
Harper 6' Driving Floating Jump Shot (13 PTS)
Brunson 13' Fadeaway Jumper (19 PTS)
Harper 2' Running Layup (15 PTS) (Vassell 5 AST)
Brunson 2' Cutting Layup Shot (17 PTS) (Bridges 6 AST)
Who actually swung it
Players ranked by how much they moved the win probability, not by points scored.
Postgame read
NYK beat SAS 105-104 by 1 point.
The game turned at Q4, 0:57.3: Wembanyama 1' Cutting Finger Roll Layup Shot (28 PTS) (Harper 3 AST). That single play moved SAS's chance of winning from 43% to 64%. No other moment shifted the game more, and it went SAS's way.
No one influenced the outcome more than Wembanyama of SAS. Across 54 plays, his actions moved the win probability by a combined 114 percentage points, the most of any player on the floor.
The tensest moment for a comeback came at Q4, 3:59, with SAS down 5 points. The model put their chance of pulling it off at 14%. In other words: difficult, but not nothing.
The strongest run that didn't fully show on the scoreboard came at Q4, 2:59, with the game tilting SAS's way. The play in the middle of it: Harper 6' Driving Floating Jump Shot (13 PTS).
These numbers come from ClutchCast's champion model, the winner of a competition between six models. The winner is judged on how honest its probabilities are on games it never trained on, not just how often it picks the right winner.