The story of the game
Win probability after every play. Hover or drag to relive any moment.
Decided by 10 points with 10 lead changes and 38 ties. The game saw 21 major win probability swings, and the losing team's chances peaked at 95%.
Q4, 1:50, Brunson (NYK): Brunson 3PT Jump Shot (28 PTS) (Bridges 3 AST). It swung the win probability by +40.1 points.
Q4, 7:22, Brunson (NYK): Brunson 3' Driving Finger Roll Layup (19 PTS). It swung the win probability by -15.2 points.
Wembanyama (SAS) 8 pts
Turning points
The plays that moved winning odds the most.
Brunson 3PT Jump Shot (28 PTS) (Bridges 3 AST)
Anunoby 24' 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (McBride 4 AST)
McBride 24' 3PT Jump Bank Shot (6 PTS) (Hart 6 AST)
Anunoby 24' 3PT Jump Shot (13 PTS)
Castle 26' 3PT Jump Shot (17 PTS) (Vassell 3 AST)
Brunson 3' Driving Finger Roll Layup (19 PTS)
Who actually swung it
Players ranked by how much they moved the win probability, not by points scored.
Postgame read
NYK beat SAS 105-95 by 10 points.
The game turned at Q4, 1:50: Brunson 3PT Jump Shot (28 PTS) (Bridges 3 AST). That single play moved SAS's chance of winning from 64% to 34%. No other moment shifted the game more, and it went NYK's way.
No one influenced the outcome more than Brunson of NYK. Across 46 plays, his actions moved the win probability by a combined 170 percentage points, the most of any player on the floor.
The tensest moment for a comeback came at Q4, 4:07, with SAS down 5 points. The model put their chance of pulling it off at 14%. In other words: difficult, but not nothing.
The strongest run that didn't fully show on the scoreboard came at Q1, 3:01, with the game tilting SAS's way. The play in the middle of it: Champagnie 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Fox 2 AST).
These numbers come from ClutchCast's champion model, the winner of a competition between six models. The winner is judged on how honest its probabilities are on games it never trained on, not just how often it picks the right winner.