The story of the game
Win probability after every play. Hover or drag to relive any moment.
Decided by 8 points with 4 lead changes and 15 ties. The game saw 11 major win probability swings, and the losing team's chances peaked at 77%.
Q3, 6:13, Champagnie (SAS): Champagnie 25' 3PT Jump Shot (17 PTS) (Harper 2 AST). It swung the win probability by +18.1 points.
Q3, 5:21, Wembanyama (SAS): Wembanyama 26' 3PT Running Jump Shot (15 PTS) (Harper 3 AST). It swung the win probability by -16.6 points.
Wallace (OKC) 8 pts
Turning points
The plays that moved winning odds the most.
Caruso 26' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (J. Williams 2 AST)
Johnson 25' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Fox 4 AST)
Johnson 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Wembanyama 2 AST)
Wallace 24' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (J. Williams 3 AST)
J. Williams 27' 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Gilgeous-Alexander 6 AST)
Champagnie 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Castle 5 AST)
Who actually swung it
Players ranked by how much they moved the win probability, not by points scored.
Postgame read
SAS beat OKC 111-103 by 8 points.
The game turned at Q3, 9:10: Caruso 26' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (J. Williams 2 AST). That single play moved OKC's chance of winning from 40% to 60%. No other moment shifted the game more, and it went OKC's way.
No one influenced the outcome more than Gilgeous-Alexander of OKC. Across 45 plays, his actions moved the win probability by a combined 130 percentage points, the most of any player on the floor.
The tensest moment for a comeback came at Q1, 6:56, with OKC down 5 points. The model put their chance of pulling it off at 39%. In other words: possible, but not nothing.
The strongest run that didn't fully show on the scoreboard came at Q3, 8:39, with the game tilting OKC's way. The play in the middle of it: Gilgeous-Alexander Free Throw 2 of 2 (24 PTS).
These numbers come from ClutchCast's champion model, the winner of a competition between six models. The winner is judged on how honest its probabilities are on games it never trained on, not just how often it picks the right winner.