The story of the game
Win probability after every play. Hover or drag to relive any moment.
Decided by 13 points with 6 lead changes and 27 ties. The game saw 4 major win probability swings, and the losing team's chances peaked at 60%.
Q2, 1:48, Caruso (OKC): Caruso 26' 3PT Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Gilgeous-Alexander 3 AST). It swung the win probability by +12.4 points.
Q2, 4:30, Dort (OKC): Dort 25' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Wallace 3 AST). It swung the win probability by -12.2 points.
McCain (OKC) 6 pts
Turning points
The plays that moved winning odds the most.
Dort 25' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Wallace 3 AST)
Bryant 26' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Fox 4 AST)
Gilgeous-Alexander 25' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Caruso 2 AST)
K. Williams 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Hartenstein 1 AST)
Wallace 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS) (J. Williams 1 AST)
Gilgeous-Alexander 11' Step Back Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Wallace 2 AST)
Who actually swung it
Players ranked by how much they moved the win probability, not by points scored.
Postgame read
OKC beat SAS 127-114 by 13 points.
The game turned at Q2, 4:30: Dort 25' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Wallace 3 AST). That single play moved OKC's chance of winning from 69% to 82%. No other moment shifted the game more, and it went OKC's way.
No one influenced the outcome more than Gilgeous-Alexander of OKC. Across 51 plays, his actions moved the win probability by a combined 67 percentage points, the most of any player on the floor.
The tensest moment for a comeback came at Q1, 7:56, with OKC down 5 points. The model put their chance of pulling it off at 40%. In other words: very realistic, but not nothing.
The strongest run that didn't fully show on the scoreboard came at Q2, 10:16, with the game tilting OKC's way. The play in the middle of it: J. Williams 26' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Caruso 3 AST).
These numbers come from ClutchCast's champion model, the winner of a competition between six models. The winner is judged on how honest its probabilities are on games it never trained on, not just how often it picks the right winner.