The story of the game
Win probability after every play. Hover or drag to relive any moment.
Decided by 21 points with 6 lead changes and 4 ties. The game saw 1 major win probability swing, and the losing team's chances peaked at 47%.
Q2, 5:41, Wembanyama (SAS): Wembanyama REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1). It swung the win probability by +11.0 points.
Q2, 8:41, Kornet (SAS): Kornet 3' Putback Layup (4 PTS). It swung the win probability by -9.1 points.
Joe (OKC) 8 pts
Turning points
The plays that moved winning odds the most.
Castle 25' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Harper 1 AST)
Fox 9' Turnaround Fadeaway (2 PTS)
Wembanyama Layup (19 PTS)
Holmgren Tip Layup Shot (8 PTS)
Gilgeous-Alexander 16' Step Back Jump Shot (10 PTS)
Vassell 25' 3PT Running Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Castle 2 AST)
Who actually swung it
Players ranked by how much they moved the win probability, not by points scored.
Postgame read
SAS beat OKC 103-82 by 21 points.
The game turned at Q1, 6:09: Castle 25' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Harper 1 AST). That single play moved SAS's chance of winning from 68% to 76%. No other moment shifted the game more, and it went SAS's way.
No one influenced the outcome more than Wembanyama of SAS. Across 54 plays, his actions moved the win probability by a combined 55 percentage points, the most of any player on the floor.
The tensest moment for a comeback came at Q1, 6:29, with OKC down 5 points. The model put their chance of pulling it off at 32%. In other words: possible, but not nothing.
The strongest run that didn't fully show on the scoreboard came at Q1, 5:40, with the game tilting SAS's way. The play in the middle of it: Vassell 25' 3PT Running Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Castle 2 AST).
These numbers come from ClutchCast's champion model, the winner of a competition between six models. The winner is judged on how honest its probabilities are on games it never trained on, not just how often it picks the right winner.