The story of the game
Win probability after every play. Hover or drag to relive any moment.
Decided by 9 points with 14 lead changes and 38 ties. The game saw 2 major win probability swings, and the losing team's chances peaked at 27%.
Q1, 8:59, Hartenstein (OKC): Hartenstein Offensive Foul Turnover (P1.T1). It swung the win probability by +6.2 points.
Q1, 2:17, Bryant (SAS): Bryant Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T3). It swung the win probability by -8.8 points.
Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) 6 pts
Turning points
The plays that moved winning odds the most.
Caruso 26' 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Gilgeous-Alexander 7 AST)
Vassell 24' 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Wembanyama 4 AST)
Jay. Williams 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Gilgeous-Alexander 6 AST)
Wembanyama 27' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (15 PTS) (Castle 3 AST)
Caruso 3PT Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Holmgren 2 AST)
Wallace 26' 3PT Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Hartenstein 2 AST)
Who actually swung it
Players ranked by how much they moved the win probability, not by points scored.
Postgame read
OKC beat SAS 122-113 by 9 points.
The game turned at Q3, 7:18: Caruso 26' 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Gilgeous-Alexander 7 AST). That single play moved OKC's chance of winning from 54% to 74%. No other moment shifted the game more, and it went OKC's way.
No one influenced the outcome more than Gilgeous-Alexander of OKC. Across 46 plays, his actions moved the win probability by a combined 91 percentage points, the most of any player on the floor.
The tensest moment for a comeback came at Q1, 2:35, with OKC down 5 points. The model put their chance of pulling it off at 36%. In other words: possible, but not nothing.
The strongest run that didn't fully show on the scoreboard came at Q1, 1:16, with the game tilting OKC's way. The play in the middle of it: Wallace 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Gilgeous-Alexander 2 AST).
These numbers come from ClutchCast's champion model, the winner of a competition between six models. The winner is judged on how honest its probabilities are on games it never trained on, not just how often it picks the right winner.