The story of the game
Win probability after every play. Hover or drag to relive any moment.
Decided by 7 points with 10 lead changes and 74 ties. The game saw 26 major win probability swings, and the losing team's chances peaked at 87%.
Q4, 0:11.5, Wembanyama (SAS): Wembanyama 4' Turnaround Jump Shot (27 PTS). It swung the win probability by +46.2 points.
Q4, 0:37.1, Harper (SAS): Harper Free Throw 1 of 2 (18 PTS). It swung the win probability by -41.8 points.
Wembanyama (SAS) 16 pts
Turning points
The plays that moved winning odds the most.
Champagnie 24' 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Castle 8 AST)
Caruso 26' 3PT Jump Shot (27 PTS) (Gilgeous-Alexander 9 AST)
Wembanyama 28' 3PT Running Jump Shot (32 PTS) (Castle 9 AST)
Jal. Williams 28' 3PT Jump Shot (26 PTS) (Gilgeous-Alexander 12 AST)
Vassell 3PT Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Champagnie 1 AST)
Caruso 3PT Jump Shot (30 PTS) (Gilgeous-Alexander 10 AST)
Who actually swung it
Players ranked by how much they moved the win probability, not by points scored.
Postgame read
SAS beat OKC 122-115 by 7 points.
The game turned at Q4, 1:26: Champagnie 24' 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Castle 8 AST). That single play moved OKC's chance of winning from 64% to 33%. No other moment shifted the game more, and it went SAS's way.
No one influenced the outcome more than Wembanyama of SAS. Across 76 plays, his actions moved the win probability by a combined 228 percentage points, the most of any player on the floor.
The tensest moment for a comeback came at Q1, 11:04, with OKC down 5 points. The model put their chance of pulling it off at 43%. In other words: very realistic, but not nothing.
The strongest run that didn't fully show on the scoreboard came at OT1, 1:10, with the game tilting OKC's way. The play in the middle of it: Wembanyama REBOUND (Off:9 Def:11).
These numbers come from ClutchCast's champion model, the winner of a competition between six models. The winner is judged on how honest its probabilities are on games it never trained on, not just how often it picks the right winner.