The story of the game
Win probability after every play. Hover or drag to relive any moment.
Decided by 37 points with 5 lead changes and 4 ties. The game saw 0 major win probability swings, and the losing team's chances peaked at 71%.
Q2, 10:35, Harden (CLE): Harden Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T3). It swung the win probability by +8.9 points.
Q2, 10:08, Mobley (CLE): MISS Mobley 5' Driving Floating Jump Shot. It swung the win probability by -8.3 points.
Bryant (CLE) 10 pts
Turning points
The plays that moved winning odds the most.
Shamet 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Brunson 4 AST)
McBride 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Hart 4 AST)
Merrill 24' 3PT Step Back Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Mobley 1 AST)
Towns 25' 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Anunoby 2 AST)
Brunson 28' 3PT Running Pull-Up Jump Shot (7 PTS)
Towns 26' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Hart 2 AST)
Who actually swung it
Players ranked by how much they moved the win probability, not by points scored.
Postgame read
NYK beat CLE 130-93 by 37 points.
The game turned at Q1, 1:59: Shamet 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Brunson 4 AST). That single play moved CLE's chance of winning from 39% to 28%. No other moment shifted the game more, and it went NYK's way.
No one influenced the outcome more than Mitchell of CLE. Across 44 plays, his actions moved the win probability by a combined 34 percentage points, the most of any player on the floor.
The tensest moment for a comeback came at Q4, 3:47, with CLE down 45 points. The model put their chance of pulling it off at 0%. In other words: nearly impossible, but not nothing.
The strongest run that didn't fully show on the scoreboard came at Q1, 10:22, with the game tilting CLE's way. The play in the middle of it: Mitchell 28' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (6 PTS).
These numbers come from ClutchCast's champion model, the winner of a competition between six models. The winner is judged on how honest its probabilities are on games it never trained on, not just how often it picks the right winner.