The story of the game
Win probability after every play. Hover or drag to relive any moment.
Decided by 16 points with 6 lead changes and 51 ties. The game saw 10 major win probability swings, and the losing team's chances peaked at 59%.
Q3, 9:49, Hart (NYK): Hart 1' Running Dunk (14 PTS) (Brunson 6 AST). It swung the win probability by +15.2 points.
Q2, 0:30.9, Hart (NYK): Hart 25' 3PT Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Brunson 5 AST). It swung the win probability by -15.0 points.
Brunson (NYK) 8 pts
Turning points
The plays that moved winning odds the most.
Brunson 28' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Hart 3 AST)
Harden 26' 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Strus 2 AST)
Anunoby 25' 3PT Step Back Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Hart 2 AST)
Hart 24' 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Bridges 3 AST)
Hart 25' 3PT Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Brunson 5 AST)
Towns 26' 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Alvarado 1 AST)
Who actually swung it
Players ranked by how much they moved the win probability, not by points scored.
Postgame read
NYK beat CLE 109-93 by 16 points.
The game turned at Q3, 10:09: Brunson 28' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Hart 3 AST). That single play moved NYK's chance of winning from 54% to 72%. No other moment shifted the game more, and it went NYK's way.
No one influenced the outcome more than Hart of NYK. Across 40 plays, his actions moved the win probability by a combined 64 percentage points, the most of any player on the floor.
The tensest moment for a comeback came at Q1, 4:26, with NYK down 5 points. The model put their chance of pulling it off at 37%. In other words: possible, but not nothing.
The strongest run that didn't fully show on the scoreboard came at Q2, 0:30.9, with the game tilting NYK's way. The play in the middle of it: Hart 25' 3PT Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Brunson 5 AST).
These numbers come from ClutchCast's champion model, the winner of a competition between six models. The winner is judged on how honest its probabilities are on games it never trained on, not just how often it picks the right winner.