The story of the game
Win probability after every play. Hover or drag to relive any moment.
Decided by 5 points with 9 lead changes and 32 ties. The game saw 76 major win probability swings, and the losing team's chances peaked at 96%.
Q4, 3:02, Gobert (MIN): Gobert 2' Layup (8 PTS) (Reid 4 AST). It swung the win probability by +34.2 points.
Q1, 3:27, Harper (SAS): Harper Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T3). It swung the win probability by -17.5 points.
Harper (SAS) 6 pts
Turning points
The plays that moved winning odds the most.
Edwards 25' 3PT Jump Shot (34 PTS) (Reid 3 AST)
Gobert 2' Layup (8 PTS) (Reid 4 AST)
Harper 3' Running Layup (20 PTS)
Reid 1' Driving Layup (13 PTS)
Fox 8' Driving Floating Jump Shot (24 PTS)
Vassell 3PT Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Castle 4 AST)
Who actually swung it
Players ranked by how much they moved the win probability, not by points scored.
Postgame read
MIN beat SAS 114-109 by 5 points.
The game turned at Q4, 5:12: Edwards 25' 3PT Jump Shot (34 PTS) (Reid 3 AST). That single play moved MIN's chance of winning from 35% to 63%. No other moment shifted the game more, and it went MIN's way.
No one influenced the outcome more than Edwards of MIN. Across 48 plays, his actions moved the win probability by a combined 164 percentage points, the most of any player on the floor.
The tensest moment for a comeback came at Q1, 10:47, with MIN down 5 points. The model put their chance of pulling it off at 43%. In other words: very realistic, but not nothing.
The strongest run that didn't fully show on the scoreboard came at Q1, 2:11, with the game tilting MIN's way. The play in the middle of it: Reid 1' Running Finger Roll Layup (2 PTS).
These numbers come from ClutchCast's champion model, the winner of a competition between six models. The winner is judged on how honest its probabilities are on games it never trained on, not just how often it picks the right winner.