The story of the game
Win probability after every play. Hover or drag to relive any moment.
Decided by 2 points with 19 lead changes and 98 ties. The game saw 28 major win probability swings, and the losing team's chances peaked at 85%.
Q4, 7:10, Fox (SAS): Fox Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P6.T13). It swung the win probability by +17.9 points.
Q3, 4:34, Shannon Jr. (MIN): Shannon Jr. Free Throw 2 of 2 (9 PTS). It swung the win probability by -17.1 points.
Randle (MIN) 6 pts
Turning points
The plays that moved winning odds the most.
Castle 27' 3PT Jump Shot (15 PTS) (Fox 4 AST)
Randle 25' 3PT Jump Shot (15 PTS) (Edwards 3 AST)
Champagnie 26' 3PT Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Castle 4 AST)
Reid 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (McDaniels 1 AST)
Vassell 26' 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Harper 4 AST)
Edwards 25' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Conley 5 AST)
Who actually swung it
Players ranked by how much they moved the win probability, not by points scored.
Postgame read
MIN beat SAS 104-102 by 2 points.
The game turned at Q4, 8:42: Castle 27' 3PT Jump Shot (15 PTS) (Fox 4 AST). That single play moved SAS's chance of winning from 36% to 63%. No other moment shifted the game more, and it went SAS's way.
No one influenced the outcome more than Edwards of MIN. Across 25 plays, his actions moved the win probability by a combined 119 percentage points, the most of any player on the floor.
The tensest moment for a comeback came at Q4, 1:19, with SAS down 5 points. The model put their chance of pulling it off at 12%. In other words: difficult, but not nothing.
The strongest run that didn't fully show on the scoreboard came at Q4, 0:06.2, with the game tilting SAS's way. The play in the middle of it: Harper REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4).
These numbers come from ClutchCast's champion model, the winner of a competition between six models. The winner is judged on how honest its probabilities are on games it never trained on, not just how often it picks the right winner.