The story of the game
Win probability after every play. Hover or drag to relive any moment.
Decided by 5 points with 13 lead changes and 22 ties. The game saw 33 major win probability swings, and the losing team's chances peaked at 86%.
Q4, 0:32.8, Holmgren (OKC): Holmgren 2' Dunk (16 PTS) (Hartenstein 5 AST). It swung the win probability by +59.3 points.
Q4, 2:03, Holmgren (OKC): Holmgren 2' Alley Oop Dunk (14 PTS) (Hartenstein 4 AST). It swung the win probability by -23.1 points.
Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) 7 pts, Hachimura (LAL) 7 pts
Turning points
The plays that moved winning odds the most.
Gilgeous-Alexander 29' 3PT Step Back Jump Shot (33 PTS)
McCain 26' 3PT Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Caruso 1 AST)
Mitchell 26' 3PT Jump Shot (26 PTS) (Hartenstein 3 AST)
Holmgren 2' Dunk (16 PTS) (Hartenstein 5 AST)
Hachimura 3PT Jump Shot (21 PTS) (L. James 3 AST)
Smart 3' Driving Layup (4 PTS)
Who actually swung it
Players ranked by how much they moved the win probability, not by points scored.
Postgame read
OKC beat LAL 115-110 by 5 points.
The game turned at Q4, 3:57: Gilgeous-Alexander 29' 3PT Step Back Jump Shot (33 PTS). That single play moved LAL's chance of winning from 44% to 19%. No other moment shifted the game more, and it went OKC's way.
No one influenced the outcome more than Gilgeous-Alexander of OKC. Across 43 plays, his actions moved the win probability by a combined 169 percentage points, the most of any player on the floor.
The tensest moment for a comeback came at Q4, 0:01.6, with LAL down 5 points. The model put their chance of pulling it off at 12%. In other words: difficult, but not nothing.
The strongest run that didn't fully show on the scoreboard came at Q4, 6:14, with the game tilting OKC's way. The play in the middle of it: Mitchell Free Throw 1 of 1 (23 PTS).
These numbers come from ClutchCast's champion model, the winner of a competition between six models. The winner is judged on how honest its probabilities are on games it never trained on, not just how often it picks the right winner.