The story of the game
Win probability after every play. Hover or drag to relive any moment.
Decided by 4 points with 11 lead changes and 46 ties. The game saw 20 major win probability swings, and the losing team's chances peaked at 98%.
Q3, 2:00, Merrill (CLE): Merrill 24' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Mobley 7 AST). It swung the win probability by +15.4 points.
Q4, 10:20, Mitchell (CLE): Mitchell Free Throw 2 of 2 (12 PTS). It swung the win probability by -14.9 points.
Mobley (CLE) 9 pts, Mitchell (CLE) 9 pts
Turning points
The plays that moved winning odds the most.
Cunningham 26' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (37 PTS)
Merrill 24' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Mobley 7 AST)
Cunningham 27' 3PT Jump Shot (32 PTS) (Reed 1 AST)
Mobley 27' 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Mitchell 2 AST)
Mitchell 26' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (19 PTS) (Mobley 8 AST)
Cunningham 24' 3PT Jump Shot (25 PTS) (Stewart 1 AST)
Who actually swung it
Players ranked by how much they moved the win probability, not by points scored.
Postgame read
CLE beat DET 117-113 by 4 points.
The game turned at Q4, 6:41: Cunningham 26' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (37 PTS). That single play moved DET's chance of winning from 54% to 78%. No other moment shifted the game more, and it went DET's way.
No one influenced the outcome more than Cunningham of DET. Across 57 plays, his actions moved the win probability by a combined 203 percentage points, the most of any player on the floor.
The tensest moment for a comeback came at OT1, 0:03.4, with DET down 5 points. The model put their chance of pulling it off at 12%. In other words: difficult, but not nothing.
The strongest run that didn't fully show on the scoreboard came at Q4, 6:15, with the game tilting DET's way. The play in the middle of it: MISS Harden 29' 3PT Jump Shot.
These numbers come from ClutchCast's champion model, the winner of a competition between six models. The winner is judged on how honest its probabilities are on games it never trained on, not just how often it picks the right winner.