The story of the game
Win probability after every play. Hover or drag to relive any moment.
Decided by 5 points with 15 lead changes and 36 ties. The game saw 62 major win probability swings, and the losing team's chances peaked at 90%.
Q2, 10:05, DiVincenzo (MIN): DiVincenzo REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1). It swung the win probability by +20.1 points.
Q4, 4:40, Jokić (DEN): MISS Jokic 4' Driving Layup. It swung the win probability by -19.7 points.
DiVincenzo (MIN) 7 pts
Turning points
The plays that moved winning odds the most.
DiVincenzo 28' 3PT Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Edwards 2 AST)
Gordon 25' 3PT Running Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Braun 5 AST)
Jokic 27' 3PT Jump Shot (15 PTS) (Murray 5 AST)
Brown 26' 3PT Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Murray 6 AST)
DiVincenzo 28' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (McDaniels 3 AST)
McDaniels 2' Running Dunk (14 PTS) (DiVincenzo 6 AST)
Who actually swung it
Players ranked by how much they moved the win probability, not by points scored.
Postgame read
MIN beat DEN 119-114 by 5 points.
The game turned at Q4, 1:05: DiVincenzo 28' 3PT Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Edwards 2 AST). That single play moved DEN's chance of winning from 43% to 18%. No other moment shifted the game more, and it went MIN's way.
No one influenced the outcome more than Jokić of DEN. Across 52 plays, his actions moved the win probability by a combined 135 percentage points, the most of any player on the floor.
The tensest moment for a comeback came at Q4, 0:03.7, with DEN down 5 points. The model put their chance of pulling it off at 12%. In other words: difficult, but not nothing.
The strongest run that didn't fully show on the scoreboard came at Q1, 6:32, with the game tilting DEN's way. The play in the middle of it: Braun 3' Running Layup (7 PTS) (Jokic 2 AST).
These numbers come from ClutchCast's champion model, the winner of a competition between six models. The winner is judged on how honest its probabilities are on games it never trained on, not just how often it picks the right winner.