The story of the game
Win probability after every play. Hover or drag to relive any moment.
Decided by 3 points with 9 lead changes and 42 ties. The game saw 24 major win probability swings, and the losing team's chances peaked at 99%.
Q4, 3:26, Williams III (POR): Williams III 8' Floating Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Holiday 9 AST). It swung the win probability by +20.4 points.
Q2, 11:46, Sharpe (POR): Sharpe 8' Driving Layup (2 PTS) (Williams III 1 AST). It swung the win probability by -18.7 points.
Vassell (SAS) 33 pts
Turning points
The plays that moved winning odds the most.
Henderson 25' 3PT Running Jump Shot (26 PTS) (Holiday 7 AST)
Henderson 26' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (31 PTS)
Holiday Putback Layup (16 PTS)
Williams III Alley Oop Dunk (11 PTS) (Avdija 3 AST)
Harper 13' Pullup Jump Shot (10 PTS)
Holiday 26' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS)
Who actually swung it
Players ranked by how much they moved the win probability, not by points scored.
Postgame read
POR beat SAS 106-103 by 3 points.
The game turned at Q3, 0:31.3: Henderson 25' 3PT Running Jump Shot (26 PTS) (Holiday 7 AST). That single play moved SAS's chance of winning from 70% to 45%. No other moment shifted the game more, and it went POR's way.
No one influenced the outcome more than Henderson of POR. Across 36 plays, his actions moved the win probability by a combined 140 percentage points, the most of any player on the floor.
The tensest moment for a comeback came at Q1, 2:45, with SAS down 5 points. The model put their chance of pulling it off at 36%. In other words: possible, but not nothing.
The strongest run that didn't fully show on the scoreboard came at Q2, 3:25, with the game tilting SAS's way. The play in the middle of it: Kornet 1' Dunk (6 PTS) (Castle 2 AST).
These numbers come from ClutchCast's champion model, the winner of a competition between six models. The winner is judged on how honest its probabilities are on games it never trained on, not just how often it picks the right winner.