The story of the game
Win probability after every play. Hover or drag to relive any moment.
Decided by 2 points with 11 lead changes and 48 ties. The game saw 19 major win probability swings, and the losing team's chances peaked at 66%.
OT1, 0:01.2, Barrett (TOR): Barrett 29' 3PT Jump Shot (24 PTS) (Barnes 14 AST). It swung the win probability by +43.1 points.
OT1, 4:19, Murray-Boyles (TOR): Murray-Boyles 16' Jump Shot (17 PTS) (Shead 5 AST). It swung the win probability by -20.6 points.
Mobley (CLE) 7 pts
Turning points
The plays that moved winning odds the most.
Barrett 29' 3PT Jump Shot (24 PTS) (Barnes 14 AST)
Walter 26' 3PT Jump Shot (24 PTS) (Shead 4 AST)
Mobley 3PT Jump Shot (24 PTS) (Harden 9 AST)
Mitchell 3' Driving Finger Roll Layup (24 PTS)
Barnes 8' Driving Floating Jump Shot (25 PTS) (Shead 6 AST)
Harden 12' Pullup Jump Shot (16 PTS) (Mitchell 2 AST)
Who actually swung it
Players ranked by how much they moved the win probability, not by points scored.
Postgame read
TOR beat CLE 112-110 by 2 points.
The game turned at OT1, 0:01.2: Barrett 29' 3PT Jump Shot (24 PTS) (Barnes 14 AST). That single play moved TOR's chance of winning from 43% to 73%. No other moment shifted the game more, and it went TOR's way.
No one influenced the outcome more than Mobley of CLE. Across 45 plays, his actions moved the win probability by a combined 110 percentage points, the most of any player on the floor.
The tensest moment for a comeback came at Q1, 8:44, with TOR down 5 points. The model put their chance of pulling it off at 41%. In other words: very realistic, but not nothing.
The strongest run that didn't fully show on the scoreboard came at Q2, 11:42, with the game tilting TOR's way. The play in the middle of it: Barnes 5' Driving Floating Jump Shot (10 PTS).
These numbers come from ClutchCast's champion model, the winner of a competition between six models. The winner is judged on how honest its probabilities are on games it never trained on, not just how often it picks the right winner.