The story of the game
Win probability after every play. Hover or drag to relive any moment.
Decided by 5 points with 7 lead changes and 26 ties. The game saw 19 major win probability swings, and the losing team's chances peaked at 85%.
Q2, 3:30, Murray-Boyles (TOR): Murray-Boyles Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T7). It swung the win probability by +19.0 points.
Q4, 6:04, Schröder (CLE): Schroder 16' Pullup Jump Shot (14 PTS). It swung the win probability by -18.2 points.
Murray-Boyles (TOR) 4 pts
Turning points
The plays that moved winning odds the most.
Tyson 24' 3PT Step Back Jump Shot (8 PTS)
Mobley 3PT Jump Shot (20 PTS) (Schroder 1 AST)
Battle 24' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Murray-Boyles 2 AST)
Mobley 26' 3PT Jump Shot (23 PTS) (Schroder 2 AST)
Shead 24' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (18 PTS) (Poeltl 3 AST)
Walter 25' 3PT Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Shead 3 AST)
Who actually swung it
Players ranked by how much they moved the win probability, not by points scored.
Postgame read
CLE beat TOR 125-120 by 5 points.
The game turned at Q4, 10:56: Tyson 24' 3PT Step Back Jump Shot (8 PTS). That single play moved CLE's chance of winning from 29% to 54%. No other moment shifted the game more, and it went CLE's way.
No one influenced the outcome more than Mobley of CLE. Across 42 plays, his actions moved the win probability by a combined 116 percentage points, the most of any player on the floor.
The tensest moment for a comeback came at Q1, 10:22, with CLE down 5 points. The model put their chance of pulling it off at 42%. In other words: very realistic, but not nothing.
The strongest run that didn't fully show on the scoreboard came at Q4, 9:23, with the game tilting CLE's way. The play in the middle of it: MISS Walter 24' 3PT Jump Shot.
These numbers come from ClutchCast's champion model, the winner of a competition between six models. The winner is judged on how honest its probabilities are on games it never trained on, not just how often it picks the right winner.