The story of the game
Win probability after every play. Hover or drag to relive any moment.
Decided by 4 points with 12 lead changes and 30 ties. The game saw 18 major win probability swings, and the losing team's chances peaked at 95%.
Q4, 0:34.6, Barnes (TOR): Barnes Free Throw 1 of 2 (18 PTS). It swung the win probability by +35.0 points.
Q3, 0:44.9, Mamukelashvili (TOR): Mamukelashvili 3' Driving Layup (2 PTS) (Barnes 4 AST). It swung the win probability by -21.4 points.
Barnes (TOR) 6 pts
Turning points
The plays that moved winning odds the most.
Harden 25' 3PT Step Back Jump Shot (19 PTS) (Mitchell 3 AST)
Merrill 25' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Mobley 3 AST)
Mitchell 26' 3PT Step Back Jump Shot (13 PTS)
Merrill 26' 3PT Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Harden 7 AST)
Ingram 26' 3PT Jump Shot (21 PTS) (Murray-Boyles 3 AST)
Wade 25' 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Harden 4 AST)
Who actually swung it
Players ranked by how much they moved the win probability, not by points scored.
Postgame read
TOR beat CLE 93-89 by 4 points.
The game turned at Q4, 6:19: Harden 25' 3PT Step Back Jump Shot (19 PTS) (Mitchell 3 AST). That single play moved TOR's chance of winning from 54% to 27%. No other moment shifted the game more, and it went CLE's way.
No one influenced the outcome more than Barnes of TOR. Across 52 plays, his actions moved the win probability by a combined 125 percentage points, the most of any player on the floor.
The tensest moment for a comeback came at Q4, 1:54, with TOR down 5 points. The model put their chance of pulling it off at 13%. In other words: difficult, but not nothing.
The strongest run that didn't fully show on the scoreboard came at Q4, 5:57, with the game tilting CLE's way. The play in the middle of it: Allen REBOUND (Off:6 Def:9).
These numbers come from ClutchCast's champion model, the winner of a competition between six models. The winner is judged on how honest its probabilities are on games it never trained on, not just how often it picks the right winner.