The story of the game
Win probability after every play. Hover or drag to relive any moment.
Decided by 1 point with 5 lead changes and 17 ties. The game saw 9 major win probability swings, and the losing team's chances peaked at 84%.
Q4, 0:12.7, McCollum (ATL): McCollum 16' Fadeaway Jumper (23 PTS) (Johnson 8 AST). It swung the win probability by +53.8 points.
Q4, 2:51, McCollum (ATL): McCollum 14' Pullup Jump Shot (21 PTS). It swung the win probability by -15.4 points.
Anunoby (NYK) 6 pts
Turning points
The plays that moved winning odds the most.
McBride 25' 3PT Jump Shot (15 PTS) (Anunoby 1 AST)
Anunoby 25' 3PT Jump Shot (29 PTS) (McBride 1 AST)
McCollum 16' Fadeaway Jumper (23 PTS) (Johnson 8 AST)
Brunson 7' Driving Floating Jump Shot (25 PTS)
Johnson Putback Layup (24 PTS)
Anunoby 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (26 PTS)
Who actually swung it
Players ranked by how much they moved the win probability, not by points scored.
Postgame read
ATL beat NYK 109-108 by 1 point.
The game turned at Q4, 1:41: McBride 25' 3PT Jump Shot (15 PTS) (Anunoby 1 AST). That single play moved ATL's chance of winning from 80% to 54%. No other moment shifted the game more, and it went NYK's way.
No one influenced the outcome more than Brunson of NYK. Across 40 plays, his actions moved the win probability by a combined 86 percentage points, the most of any player on the floor.
The tensest moment for a comeback came at Q4, 3:51, with NYK down 5 points. The model put their chance of pulling it off at 10%. In other words: difficult, but not nothing.
The strongest run that didn't fully show on the scoreboard came at Q1, 5:36, with the game tilting ATL's way. The play in the middle of it: McCollum 12' Running Pull-Up Jump Shot (5 PTS).
These numbers come from ClutchCast's champion model, the winner of a competition between six models. The winner is judged on how honest its probabilities are on games it never trained on, not just how often it picks the right winner.