The story of the game
Win probability after every play. Hover or drag to relive any moment.
Decided by 1 point with 3 lead changes and 37 ties. The game saw 13 major win probability swings, and the losing team's chances peaked at 98%.
Q4, 0:41.9, Johnson (ATL): Johnson REBOUND (Off:1 Def:7). It swung the win probability by +44.9 points.
Q4, 0:05.6, McCollum (ATL): MISS McCollum Free Throw 1 of 2. It swung the win probability by -43.2 points.
McCollum (ATL) 20 pts
Turning points
The plays that moved winning odds the most.
Brunson 26' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (26 PTS)
Brunson 27' 3PT Jump Shot (29 PTS) (Hart 6 AST)
McCollum 14' Fadeaway Jumper (32 PTS)
McCollum 1' Driving Layup (28 PTS)
McCollum 7' Driving Floating Jump Shot (30 PTS)
Johnson 3' Driving Layup (15 PTS) (Alexander-Walker 5 AST)
Who actually swung it
Players ranked by how much they moved the win probability, not by points scored.
Postgame read
ATL beat NYK 107-106 by 1 point.
The game turned at Q4, 1:21: Brunson 26' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (26 PTS). That single play moved NYK's chance of winning from 25% to 54%. No other moment shifted the game more, and it went NYK's way.
No one influenced the outcome more than McCollum of ATL. Across 43 plays, his actions moved the win probability by a combined 133 percentage points, the most of any player on the floor.
The tensest moment for a comeback came at Q4, 6:05, with ATL down 5 points. The model put their chance of pulling it off at 11%. In other words: difficult, but not nothing.
The strongest run that didn't fully show on the scoreboard came at Q3, 11:14, with the game tilting NYK's way. The play in the middle of it: Towns 27' 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Hart 5 AST).
These numbers come from ClutchCast's champion model, the winner of a competition between six models. The winner is judged on how honest its probabilities are on games it never trained on, not just how often it picks the right winner.