The story of the game
Win probability after every play. Hover or drag to relive any moment.
Decided by 38 points with 4 lead changes and 8 ties. The game saw 1 major win probability swing, and the losing team's chances peaked at 48%.
Q1, 1:25, Green (DAL): Green Tip Dunk Shot (2 PTS). It swung the win probability by +10.6 points.
Q1, 6:50, Irving (DAL): Irving 3' Driving Layup (4 PTS). It swung the win probability by -9.1 points.
Pritchard (BOS) 7 pts
Turning points
The plays that moved winning odds the most.
Lively II 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Doncic 1 AST)
Irving 27' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS)
White 30' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS)
Tatum 25' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Holiday 1 AST)
Doncic 11' Driving Floating Jump Shot (8 PTS)
Jones Jr. 1' Driving Finger Roll Layup (2 PTS)
Who actually swung it
Players ranked by how much they moved the win probability, not by points scored.
Postgame read
DAL beat BOS 122-84 by 38 points.
The game turned at Q1, 6:14: Lively II 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Doncic 1 AST). That single play moved DAL's chance of winning from 51% to 60%. No other moment shifted the game more, and it went DAL's way.
No one influenced the outcome more than Dončić of DAL. Across 49 plays, his actions moved the win probability by a combined 37 percentage points, the most of any player on the floor.
The tensest moment for a comeback came at Q4, 5:58, with BOS down 48 points. The model put their chance of pulling it off at 0%. In other words: nearly impossible, but not nothing.
The strongest run that didn't fully show on the scoreboard came at Q1, 0:29.4, with the game tilting DAL's way. The play in the middle of it: Washington 25' 3PT Running Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Irving 2 AST).
These numbers come from ClutchCast's champion model, the winner of a competition between six models. The winner is judged on how honest its probabilities are on games it never trained on, not just how often it picks the right winner.