The story of the game
Win probability after every play. Hover or drag to relive any moment.
Decided by 7 points with 15 lead changes and 15 ties. The game saw 62 major win probability swings, and the losing team's chances peaked at 85%.
Q3, 11:42, Brown (BOS): Brown 12' Pullup Jump Shot (8 PTS). It swung the win probability by +42.4 points.
Q2, 7:17, Gafford (DAL): Gafford L.B.FOUL (P1.T1) (J.Capers). It swung the win probability by -13.9 points.
Lively II (DAL) 6 pts
Turning points
The plays that moved winning odds the most.
Holiday 27' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (9 PTS)
Brown Tip Layup Shot (28 PTS)
Irving 18' Pullup Jump Shot (33 PTS)
Tatum 27' 3PT Jump Shot (25 PTS) (Brown 7 AST)
Horford 3PT Running Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Holiday 2 AST)
Irving 26' 3PT Step Back Jump Shot (17 PTS)
Who actually swung it
Players ranked by how much they moved the win probability, not by points scored.
Postgame read
BOS beat DAL 106-99 by 7 points.
The game turned at Q3, 9:20: Holiday 27' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (9 PTS). That single play moved DAL's chance of winning from 60% to 40%. No other moment shifted the game more, and it went BOS's way.
No one influenced the outcome more than Irving of DAL. Across 43 plays, his actions moved the win probability by a combined 145 percentage points, the most of any player on the floor.
The tensest moment for a comeback came at Q4, 0:22, with DAL down 5 points. The model put their chance of pulling it off at 12%. In other words: difficult, but not nothing.
The strongest run that didn't fully show on the scoreboard came at Q2, 2:46, with the game tilting DAL's way. The play in the middle of it: MISS Tatum 3' Driving Layup.
These numbers come from ClutchCast's champion model, the winner of a competition between six models. The winner is judged on how honest its probabilities are on games it never trained on, not just how often it picks the right winner.