The story of the game
Win probability after every play. Hover or drag to relive any moment.
Decided by 7 points with 7 lead changes and 27 ties. The game saw 9 major win probability swings, and the losing team's chances peaked at 63%.
Q3, 7:00, Porziņģis (BOS): Porzingis 15' Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Brown 5 AST). It swung the win probability by +14.8 points.
Q3, 9:22, White (BOS): White 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Tatum 9 AST). It swung the win probability by -14.4 points.
Jones Jr. (DAL) 4 pts
Turning points
The plays that moved winning odds the most.
Doncic 26' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (23 PTS)
White 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Tatum 9 AST)
Holiday 3PT Jump Shot (17 PTS) (Tatum 8 AST)
White 24' 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Tatum 4 AST)
Tatum 2' Cutting Layup Shot (7 PTS) (Holiday 2 AST)
Washington 9' Driving Floating Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Doncic 5 AST)
Who actually swung it
Players ranked by how much they moved the win probability, not by points scored.
Postgame read
BOS beat DAL 105-98 by 7 points.
The game turned at Q2, 2:16: Doncic 26' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (23 PTS). That single play moved BOS's chance of winning from 65% to 48%. No other moment shifted the game more, and it went DAL's way.
No one influenced the outcome more than Dončić of DAL. Across 58 plays, his actions moved the win probability by a combined 106 percentage points, the most of any player on the floor.
The tensest moment for a comeback came at Q1, 10:48, with BOS down 5 points. The model put their chance of pulling it off at 43%. In other words: very realistic, but not nothing.
The strongest run that didn't fully show on the scoreboard came at Q2, 0:37.1, with the game tilting BOS's way. The play in the middle of it: Holiday 3PT Jump Shot (17 PTS) (Tatum 8 AST).
These numbers come from ClutchCast's champion model, the winner of a competition between six models. The winner is judged on how honest its probabilities are on games it never trained on, not just how often it picks the right winner.