The story of the game
Win probability after every play. Hover or drag to relive any moment.
Decided by 18 points with 8 lead changes and 17 ties. The game saw 0 major win probability swings, and the losing team's chances peaked at 53%.
Q1, 5:55, White (BOS): White 26' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Holiday 1 AST). It swung the win probability by +9.6 points.
Q1, 2:21, Porziņģis (BOS): Porzingis 16' Jump Shot (8 PTS). It swung the win probability by -9.2 points.
Hardy (DAL) 11 pts
Turning points
The plays that moved winning odds the most.
White 26' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Tatum 3 AST)
White 26' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Holiday 1 AST)
Doncic 27' 3PT Step Back Jump Shot (7 PTS)
Horford 24' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Tatum 2 AST)
Tatum 27' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (3 PTS)
Holiday 27' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (3 PTS) (White 1 AST)
Who actually swung it
Players ranked by how much they moved the win probability, not by points scored.
Postgame read
BOS beat DAL 107-89 by 18 points.
The game turned at Q1, 6:19: White 26' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Tatum 3 AST). That single play moved BOS's chance of winning from 51% to 60%. No other moment shifted the game more, and it went BOS's way.
No one influenced the outcome more than Porziņģis of BOS. Across 29 plays, his actions moved the win probability by a combined 30 percentage points, the most of any player on the floor.
The tensest moment for a comeback came at Q1, 5:55, with DAL down 5 points. The model put their chance of pulling it off at 32%. In other words: possible, but not nothing.
The strongest run that didn't fully show on the scoreboard came at Q1, 7:56, with the game tilting BOS's way. The play in the middle of it: Tatum REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1).
These numbers come from ClutchCast's champion model, the winner of a competition between six models. The winner is judged on how honest its probabilities are on games it never trained on, not just how often it picks the right winner.