The story of the game
Win probability after every play. Hover or drag to relive any moment.
Decided by 5 points with 9 lead changes and 29 ties. The game saw 25 major win probability swings, and the losing team's chances peaked at 75%.
Q4, 1:31, Brown (DEN): Brown Putback Layup (8 PTS). It swung the win probability by +33.2 points.
Q4, 2:24, Jokić (DEN): Jokic 4' Driving Finger Roll Layup (28 PTS) (Murray 8 AST). It swung the win probability by -19.5 points.
Butler III (MIA) 13 pts
Turning points
The plays that moved winning odds the most.
Lowry 30' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS)
Porter Jr. 25' 3PT Running Pull-Up Jump Shot (16 PTS)
Murray 3PT Running Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Porter Jr. 3 AST)
Brown Putback Layup (8 PTS)
Lowry 3PT Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Robinson 3 AST)
Murray 25' 3PT Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Gordon 1 AST)
Who actually swung it
Players ranked by how much they moved the win probability, not by points scored.
Postgame read
DEN beat MIA 94-89 by 5 points.
The game turned at Q3, 0:33.1: Lowry 30' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS). That single play moved DEN's chance of winning from 70% to 45%. No other moment shifted the game more, and it went MIA's way.
No one influenced the outcome more than Jokić of DEN. Across 47 plays, his actions moved the win probability by a combined 144 percentage points, the most of any player on the floor.
The tensest moment for a comeback came at Q1, 10:35, with DEN down 5 points. The model put their chance of pulling it off at 42%. In other words: very realistic, but not nothing.
The strongest run that didn't fully show on the scoreboard came at Q3, 2:25, with the game tilting DEN's way. The play in the middle of it: Porter Jr. 2' Running Finger Roll Layup (13 PTS).
These numbers come from ClutchCast's champion model, the winner of a competition between six models. The winner is judged on how honest its probabilities are on games it never trained on, not just how often it picks the right winner.