The story of the game
Win probability after every play. Hover or drag to relive any moment.
Decided by 13 points with 3 lead changes and 32 ties. The game saw 15 major win probability swings, and the losing team's chances peaked at 67%.
Q4, 8:25, Murray (DEN): Murray 26' 3PT Jump Shot (15 PTS) (Gordon 5 AST). It swung the win probability by +19.7 points.
Q3, 7:35, Murray (DEN): Murray 4' Cutting Layup Shot (10 PTS) (Gordon 4 AST). It swung the win probability by -15.4 points.
Brown (DEN) 9 pts
Turning points
The plays that moved winning odds the most.
Jokic 26' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Murray 2 AST)
Gordon 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Murray 1 AST)
Robinson 24' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Butler 3 AST)
Jokic 26' 3PT Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Murray 4 AST)
Gordon 27' 3PT Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Brown 2 AST)
Butler 24' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Lowry 1 AST)
Who actually swung it
Players ranked by how much they moved the win probability, not by points scored.
Postgame read
DEN beat MIA 108-95 by 13 points.
The game turned at Q2, 7:31: Jokic 26' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Murray 2 AST). That single play moved MIA's chance of winning from 54% to 39%. No other moment shifted the game more, and it went DEN's way.
No one influenced the outcome more than Gordon of DEN. Across 34 plays, his actions moved the win probability by a combined 87 percentage points, the most of any player on the floor.
The tensest moment for a comeback came at Q1, 8:41, with MIA down 5 points. The model put their chance of pulling it off at 41%. In other words: very realistic, but not nothing.
The strongest run that didn't fully show on the scoreboard came at Q1, 0:41.3, with the game tilting MIA's way. The play in the middle of it: Lowry 26' 3PT Running Pull-Up Jump Shot (3 PTS).
These numbers come from ClutchCast's champion model, the winner of a competition between six models. The winner is judged on how honest its probabilities are on games it never trained on, not just how often it picks the right winner.