The story of the game
Win probability after every play. Hover or drag to relive any moment.
Decided by 15 points with 7 lead changes and 48 ties. The game saw 10 major win probability swings, and the losing team's chances peaked at 74%.
Q3, 9:47, Gordon (DEN): Gordon 1' Cutting Dunk Shot (8 PTS) (Murray 5 AST). It swung the win probability by +13.4 points.
Q3, 7:40, Murray (DEN): Murray 2' Putback Layup (22 PTS). It swung the win probability by -13.3 points.
Robinson (MIA) 8 pts, Murray (DEN) 8 pts
Turning points
The plays that moved winning odds the most.
Murray 26' 3PT Jump Shot (18 PTS) (Jokic 7 AST)
Strus 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Martin 2 AST)
Murray 26' 3PT Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Jokic 6 AST)
Martin 26' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Adebayo 1 AST)
Martin 24' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Lowry 2 AST)
Murray 27' 3PT Step Back Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Green 1 AST)
Who actually swung it
Players ranked by how much they moved the win probability, not by points scored.
Postgame read
DEN beat MIA 109-94 by 15 points.
The game turned at Q2, 3:03: Murray 26' 3PT Jump Shot (18 PTS) (Jokic 7 AST). That single play moved MIA's chance of winning from 65% to 48%. No other moment shifted the game more, and it went DEN's way.
No one influenced the outcome more than Murray of DEN. Across 52 plays, his actions moved the win probability by a combined 89 percentage points, the most of any player on the floor.
The tensest moment for a comeback came at Q2, 10:47, with MIA down 5 points. The model put their chance of pulling it off at 32%. In other words: possible, but not nothing.
The strongest run that didn't fully show on the scoreboard came at Q2, 7:53, with the game tilting MIA's way. The play in the middle of it: Martin 26' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Adebayo 1 AST).
These numbers come from ClutchCast's champion model, the winner of a competition between six models. The winner is judged on how honest its probabilities are on games it never trained on, not just how often it picks the right winner.