The story of the game
Win probability after every play. Hover or drag to relive any moment.
Decided by 3 points with 4 lead changes and 14 ties. The game saw 17 major win probability swings, and the losing team's chances peaked at 92%.
Q4, 10:10, Vincent (MIA): Vincent 26' 3PT Jump Shot (21 PTS) (Adebayo 2 AST). It swung the win probability by +21.7 points.
Q3, 2:51, Zeller (MIA): Zeller 4' Layup (4 PTS) (Butler 8 AST). It swung the win probability by -13.1 points.
Murray (DEN) 6 pts
Turning points
The plays that moved winning odds the most.
Vincent 26' 3PT Jump Shot (21 PTS) (Adebayo 2 AST)
Robinson 27' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (8 PTS)
Butler 3PT Jump Shot (16 PTS) (Robinson 1 AST)
Robinson 3' Cutting Layup Shot (10 PTS) (Adebayo 3 AST)
Lowry 27' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (6 PTS)
Murray 26' 3PT Jump Shot (18 PTS) (Jokic 4 AST)
Who actually swung it
Players ranked by how much they moved the win probability, not by points scored.
Postgame read
MIA beat DEN 111-108 by 3 points.
The game turned at Q4, 10:10: Vincent 26' 3PT Jump Shot (21 PTS) (Adebayo 2 AST). That single play moved DEN's chance of winning from 70% to 45%. No other moment shifted the game more, and it went MIA's way.
No one influenced the outcome more than Jokić of DEN. Across 56 plays, his actions moved the win probability by a combined 171 percentage points, the most of any player on the floor.
The tensest moment for a comeback came at Q4, 0:48.3, with DEN down 5 points. The model put their chance of pulling it off at 12%. In other words: difficult, but not nothing.
The strongest run that didn't fully show on the scoreboard came at Q2, 9:57, with the game tilting DEN's way. The play in the middle of it: Murray 24' 3PT Running Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Braun 2 AST).
These numbers come from ClutchCast's champion model, the winner of a competition between six models. The winner is judged on how honest its probabilities are on games it never trained on, not just how often it picks the right winner.