The story of the game
Win probability after every play. Hover or drag to relive any moment.
Decided by 11 points with 4 lead changes and 11 ties. The game saw 0 major win probability swings, and the losing team's chances peaked at 46%.
Q2, 10:31, Murray (DEN): Murray 27' 3PT Step Back Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Brown 1 AST). It swung the win probability by +9.9 points.
Q3, 6:25, Jokić (DEN): Jokic 25' 3PT Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Murray 5 AST). It swung the win probability by -8.9 points.
Highsmith (MIA) 10 pts
Turning points
The plays that moved winning odds the most.
Vincent 28' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Butler 1 AST)
Brown 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Jokic 8 AST)
Porter Jr. 26' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Jokic 6 AST)
Murray 27' 3PT Step Back Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Brown 1 AST)
Butler 25' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Strus 1 AST)
Porter Jr. 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Braun 1 AST)
Who actually swung it
Players ranked by how much they moved the win probability, not by points scored.
Postgame read
DEN beat MIA 104-93 by 11 points.
The game turned at Q1, 5:23: Vincent 28' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Butler 1 AST). That single play moved DEN's chance of winning from 69% to 60%. No other moment shifted the game more, and it went MIA's way.
No one influenced the outcome more than Murray of DEN. Across 38 plays, his actions moved the win probability by a combined 44 percentage points, the most of any player on the floor.
The tensest moment for a comeback came at Q1, 6:29, with MIA down 5 points. The model put their chance of pulling it off at 32%. In other words: possible, but not nothing.
The strongest run that didn't fully show on the scoreboard came at Q1, 3:15, with the game tilting DEN's way. The play in the middle of it: MISS Martin 13' Pullup Jump Shot.
These numbers come from ClutchCast's champion model, the winner of a competition between six models. The winner is judged on how honest its probabilities are on games it never trained on, not just how often it picks the right winner.