The story of the game
Win probability after every play. Hover or drag to relive any moment.
Decided by 13 points with 4 lead changes and 38 ties. The game saw 14 major win probability swings, and the losing team's chances peaked at 65%.
Q2, 0:33.3, Wallace (OKC): Wallace REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3). It swung the win probability by +13.0 points.
Q3, 8:57, Gobert (MIN): Gobert REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5). It swung the win probability by -25.8 points.
Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) 6 pts
Turning points
The plays that moved winning odds the most.
Joe 25' 3PT Jump Shot (16 PTS) (Caruso 1 AST)
Joe 25' 3PT Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Gilgeous-Alexander 7 AST)
Edwards 26' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (8 PTS)
Edwards 26' 3PT Step Back Jump Shot (11 PTS)
J. Williams 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Gilgeous-Alexander 9 AST)
Dosunmu 25' 3PT Running Jump Shot (15 PTS) (Randle 3 AST)
Who actually swung it
Players ranked by how much they moved the win probability, not by points scored.
Postgame read
OKC beat MIN 116-103 by 13 points.
The game turned at Q3, 3:02: Joe 25' 3PT Jump Shot (16 PTS) (Caruso 1 AST). That single play moved OKC's chance of winning from 31% to 54%. No other moment shifted the game more, and it went OKC's way.
No one influenced the outcome more than Randle of MIN. Across 42 plays, his actions moved the win probability by a combined 112 percentage points, the most of any player on the floor.
The tensest moment for a comeback came at Q3, 3:34, with OKC down 5 points. The model put their chance of pulling it off at 19%. In other words: difficult, but not nothing.
The strongest run that didn't fully show on the scoreboard came at Q3, 0:26.4, with the game tilting OKC's way. The play in the middle of it: Gilgeous-Alexander Free Throw 1 of 2 (9 PTS).
These numbers come from ClutchCast's champion model, the winner of a competition between six models. The winner is judged on how honest its probabilities are on games it never trained on, not just how often it picks the right winner.