The story of the game
Win probability after every play. Hover or drag to relive any moment.
Decided by 2 points with 9 lead changes and 58 ties. The game saw 28 major win probability swings, and the losing team's chances peaked at 95%.
Q4, 0:49, Gordon (DEN): Gordon Lost Ball Turnover (P3.T16). It swung the win probability by +55.1 points.
OT1, 1:47, Reaves (LAL): MISS Reaves 3PT Jump Shot. It swung the win probability by -41.8 points.
Gordon (DEN) 10 pts
Turning points
The plays that moved winning odds the most.
Hardaway Jr. 3PT Jump Shot (20 PTS) (Jokic 14 AST)
Smart 25' 3PT Jump Shot (21 PTS) (Doncic 13 AST)
Gordon 27' 3PT Step Back Jump Shot (27 PTS)
Gordon 24' 3PT Running Jump Shot (23 PTS) (Murray 6 AST)
Gordon 25' 3PT Jump Shot (17 PTS) (Brown 2 AST)
Reaves 25' 3PT Jump Shot (23 PTS) (L. James 4 AST)
Who actually swung it
Players ranked by how much they moved the win probability, not by points scored.
Postgame read
LAL beat DEN 127-125 by 2 points.
The game turned at Q4, 0:31.7: Hardaway Jr. 3PT Jump Shot (20 PTS) (Jokic 14 AST). That single play moved LAL's chance of winning from 64% to 33%. No other moment shifted the game more, and it went DEN's way.
No one influenced the outcome more than Reaves of LAL. Across 46 plays, his actions moved the win probability by a combined 157 percentage points, the most of any player on the floor.
The tensest moment for a comeback came at Q4, 4:12, with LAL down 5 points. The model put their chance of pulling it off at 14%. In other words: difficult, but not nothing.
The strongest run that didn't fully show on the scoreboard came at Q1, 8:15, with the game tilting LAL's way. The play in the middle of it: Smart S.FOUL (P1.T1) (J.Goble).
These numbers come from ClutchCast's champion model, the winner of a competition between six models. The winner is judged on how honest its probabilities are on games it never trained on, not just how often it picks the right winner.