The story of the game
Win probability after every play. Hover or drag to relive any moment.
Decided by 23 points with 6 lead changes and 17 ties. The game saw 46 major win probability swings, and the losing team's chances peaked at 67%.
Q3, 11:32, McCollum (ATL): McCollum P.FOUL (P2.T1) (M.Dagher). It swung the win probability by +16.4 points.
Q3, 10:16, Kuzma (MIL): Kuzma Traveling Turnover (P4.T15). It swung the win probability by -26.9 points.
Trent Jr. (MIL) 5 pts, McCollum (ATL) 5 pts
Turning points
The plays that moved winning odds the most.
McCollum 24' 3PT Step Back Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Kispert 1 AST)
McCollum 26' 3PT Step Back Jump Shot (5 PTS)
Portis 25' 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Porter Jr. 3 AST)
Green 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Rollins 3 AST)
Portis 24' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Rollins 2 AST)
McCollum 3PT Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Johnson 7 AST)
Who actually swung it
Players ranked by how much they moved the win probability, not by points scored.
Postgame read
ATL beat MIL 122-99 by 23 points.
The game turned at Q2, 11:10: McCollum 24' 3PT Step Back Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Kispert 1 AST). That single play moved ATL's chance of winning from 54% to 66%. No other moment shifted the game more, and it went ATL's way.
No one influenced the outcome more than McCollum of ATL. Across 37 plays, his actions moved the win probability by a combined 56 percentage points, the most of any player on the floor.
The tensest moment for a comeback came at Q1, 9:41, with MIL down 5 points. The model put their chance of pulling it off at 35%. In other words: possible, but not nothing.
The strongest run that didn't fully show on the scoreboard came at Q2, 6:06, with the game tilting ATL's way. The play in the middle of it: Alexander-Walker 25' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Johnson 5 AST).
These numbers come from ClutchCast's champion model, the winner of a competition between six models. The winner is judged on how honest its probabilities are on games it never trained on, not just how often it picks the right winner.