The story of the game
Win probability after every play. Hover or drag to relive any moment.
Decided by 7 points with 2 lead changes and 6 ties. The game saw 6 major win probability swings, and the losing team's chances peaked at 51%.
Q4, 1:43, Barlow (PHI): Barlow Free Throw 1 of 2 (8 PTS). It swung the win probability by +13.5 points.
Q4, 2:16, Grimes (PHI): Grimes Free Throw 1 of 2 (22 PTS). It swung the win probability by -11.1 points.
Grimes (PHI) 7 pts
Turning points
The plays that moved winning odds the most.
Etienne 25' 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Liddell 2 AST)
Liddell 28' 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Smith 1 AST)
Edwards 2' Driving Layup (19 PTS)
Traore 27' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Liddell 3 AST)
Bona Free Throw 1 of 2 (8 PTS)
Grimes 24' Pullup Jump Shot (25 PTS)
Who actually swung it
Players ranked by how much they moved the win probability, not by points scored.
Postgame read
PHI beat BKN 104-97 by 7 points.
The game turned at Q4, 3:23: Etienne 25' 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Liddell 2 AST). That single play moved PHI's chance of winning from 72% to 44%. No other moment shifted the game more, and it went BKN's way.
No one influenced the outcome more than Grimes of PHI. Across 46 plays, his actions moved the win probability by a combined 46 percentage points, the most of any player on the floor.
The tensest moment for a comeback came at Q4, 0:11.9, with BKN down 5 points. The model put their chance of pulling it off at 9%. In other words: very unlikely, but not nothing.
The strongest run that didn't fully show on the scoreboard came at Q4, 2:16, with the game tilting PHI's way. The play in the middle of it: Grimes Free Throw 2 of 2 (23 PTS).
These numbers come from ClutchCast's champion model, the winner of a competition between six models. The winner is judged on how honest its probabilities are on games it never trained on, not just how often it picks the right winner.