The story of the game
Win probability after every play. Hover or drag to relive any moment.
Decided by 33 points with 2 lead changes and 9 ties. The game saw 1 major win probability swing, and the losing team's chances peaked at 69%.
Q2, 8:45, Mitchell (CLE): Mitchell 3' Running Finger Roll Layup (8 PTS). It swung the win probability by +8.4 points.
Q2, 1:13, Harden (CLE): Harden 26' 3PT Running Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Tyson 2 AST). It swung the win probability by -7.9 points.
Williams (DAL) 5 pts
Turning points
The plays that moved winning odds the most.
Mobley 25' 3PT Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Harden 2 AST)
Tyson 26' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Harden 3 AST)
Nembhard 26' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Flagg 4 AST)
Mobley 25' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Mitchell 1 AST)
Schroder 24' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Porter Jr. 1 AST)
Marshall 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Nembhard 3 AST)
Who actually swung it
Players ranked by how much they moved the win probability, not by points scored.
Postgame read
CLE beat DAL 138-105 by 33 points.
The game turned at Q1, 6:06: Mobley 25' 3PT Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Harden 2 AST). That single play moved DAL's chance of winning from 45% to 36%. No other moment shifted the game more, and it went CLE's way.
No one influenced the outcome more than Mobley of CLE. Across 39 plays, his actions moved the win probability by a combined 51 percentage points, the most of any player on the floor.
The tensest moment for a comeback came at Q1, 4:36, with DAL down 5 points. The model put their chance of pulling it off at 37%. In other words: possible, but not nothing.
The strongest run that didn't fully show on the scoreboard came at Q2, 9:46, with the game tilting DAL's way. The play in the middle of it: Bagley III 2' Dunk (2 PTS) (Flagg 3 AST).
These numbers come from ClutchCast's champion model, the winner of a competition between six models. The winner is judged on how honest its probabilities are on games it never trained on, not just how often it picks the right winner.