The story of the game
Win probability after every play. Hover or drag to relive any moment.
Decided by 2 points with 19 lead changes and 76 ties. The game saw 29 major win probability swings, and the losing team's chances peaked at 80%.
Q3, 3:07, Williams (OKC): J. Williams REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1). It swung the win probability by +34.5 points.
Q4, 11:33, Hauser (BOS): Hauser REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2). It swung the win probability by -25.6 points.
Brown (BOS) 7 pts
Turning points
The plays that moved winning odds the most.
Mitchell 3PT Jump Shot (15 PTS) (Gilgeous-Alexander 9 AST)
McCain 27' 3PT Running Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Caruso 1 AST)
Scheierman 29' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Brown 6 AST)
Brown 26' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (21 PTS) (Scheierman 4 AST)
Brown 19' Turnaround Fadeaway (34 PTS)
Gilgeous-Alexander 16' Pullup Jump Shot (35 PTS)
Who actually swung it
Players ranked by how much they moved the win probability, not by points scored.
Postgame read
OKC beat BOS 104-102 by 2 points.
The game turned at Q4, 4:32: Mitchell 3PT Jump Shot (15 PTS) (Gilgeous-Alexander 9 AST). That single play moved OKC's chance of winning from 44% to 72%. No other moment shifted the game more, and it went OKC's way.
No one influenced the outcome more than Brown of BOS. Across 62 plays, his actions moved the win probability by a combined 222 percentage points, the most of any player on the floor.
The tensest moment for a comeback came at Q3, 1:23, with OKC down 5 points. The model put their chance of pulling it off at 18%. In other words: difficult, but not nothing.
The strongest run that didn't fully show on the scoreboard came at Q3, 6:40, with the game tilting OKC's way. The play in the middle of it: Mitchell 2' Putback Layup (8 PTS).
These numbers come from ClutchCast's champion model, the winner of a competition between six models. The winner is judged on how honest its probabilities are on games it never trained on, not just how often it picks the right winner.