The story of the game
Win probability after every play. Hover or drag to relive any moment.
Decided by 5 points with 1 lead change and 2 ties. The game saw 15 major win probability swings, and the losing team's chances peaked at 99%.
Q4, 3:43, Murray (DEN): Murray 15' Pullup Jump Shot (33 PTS) (Jokic 11 AST). It swung the win probability by +27.1 points.
Q4, 1:00, Murray (DEN): Murray 7' Turnaround Jump Shot (35 PTS). It swung the win probability by -21.7 points.
Johnson (SAS) 15 pts
Turning points
The plays that moved winning odds the most.
Murray 26' 3PT Step Back Jump Shot (29 PTS)
Barnes 27' 3PT Jump Shot (16 PTS) (Harper 5 AST)
Strawther 25' 3PT Running Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Murray 7 AST)
Harper 24' 3PT Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Fox 9 AST)
S. Jones 1' Cutting Layup Shot (19 PTS) (Jokic 10 AST)
Murray 1' Turnaround Jump Shot (31 PTS)
Who actually swung it
Players ranked by how much they moved the win probability, not by points scored.
Postgame read
DEN beat SAS 136-131 by 5 points.
The game turned at Q4, 4:39: Murray 26' 3PT Step Back Jump Shot (29 PTS). That single play moved SAS's chance of winning from 63% to 34%. No other moment shifted the game more, and it went DEN's way.
No one influenced the outcome more than Murray of DEN. Across 49 plays, his actions moved the win probability by a combined 125 percentage points, the most of any player on the floor.
The tensest moment for a comeback came at Q4, 0:01.9, with SAS down 5 points. The model put their chance of pulling it off at 12%. In other words: difficult, but not nothing.
The strongest run that didn't fully show on the scoreboard came at Q4, 1:23, with the game tilting SAS's way. The play in the middle of it: Barnes Free Throw 2 of 2 (18 PTS).
These numbers come from ClutchCast's champion model, the winner of a competition between six models. The winner is judged on how honest its probabilities are on games it never trained on, not just how often it picks the right winner.