The story of the game
Win probability after every play. Hover or drag to relive any moment.
Decided by 22 points with 0 lead changes and 2 ties. The game saw 2 major win probability swings, and the losing team's chances peaked at 43%.
Q1, 5:13, Duren (DET): Duren BLOCK (1 BLK). It swung the win probability by +12.0 points.
Q2, 0:29.1, Harris (DET): Harris 1' Running Layup (10 PTS) (Sasser 3 AST). It swung the win probability by -9.8 points.
Walker (PHI) 7 pts
Turning points
The plays that moved winning odds the most.
Payne 27' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (5 PTS)
Harris 1' Running Layup (10 PTS) (Sasser 3 AST)
Grimes 16' Step Back Jump Shot (7 PTS)
Harris 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Jenkins 1 AST)
Harris 26' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Cunningham 3 AST)
Robinson 29' 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Sasser 2 AST)
Who actually swung it
Players ranked by how much they moved the win probability, not by points scored.
Postgame read
DET beat PHI 131-109 by 22 points.
The game turned at Q1, 1:11: Payne 27' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (5 PTS). That single play moved DET's chance of winning from 80% to 72%. No other moment shifted the game more, and it went PHI's way.
No one influenced the outcome more than Harris of DET. Across 23 plays, his actions moved the win probability by a combined 33 percentage points, the most of any player on the floor.
The tensest moment for a comeback came at Q4, 4:32, with PHI down 35 points. The model put their chance of pulling it off at 0%. In other words: nearly impossible, but not nothing.
The strongest run that didn't fully show on the scoreboard came at Q1, 0:22.9, with the game tilting DET's way. The play in the middle of it: Harris 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Jenkins 1 AST).
These numbers come from ClutchCast's champion model, the winner of a competition between six models. The winner is judged on how honest its probabilities are on games it never trained on, not just how often it picks the right winner.