The story of the game
Win probability after every play. Hover or drag to relive any moment.
Decided by 36 points with 3 lead changes and 17 ties. The game saw 5 major win probability swings, and the losing team's chances peaked at 57%.
Q2, 10:41, Hardaway Jr. (DEN): Hardaway Jr. 27' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Murray 2 AST). It swung the win probability by +12.9 points.
Q2, 2:48, Braun (DEN): Braun 1' Driving Layup (6 PTS) (Jokic 7 AST). It swung the win probability by -11.3 points.
Strawther (DEN) 6 pts
Turning points
The plays that moved winning odds the most.
Braun 31' 3PT Step Back Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Gordon 1 AST)
Braun 1' Driving Layup (6 PTS) (Jokic 7 AST)
Thompson 2' Dunk (8 PTS) (Okogie 2 AST)
Johnson 3PT Running Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Jokic 10 AST)
Johnson 3' Running Layup (7 PTS) (Hardaway Jr. 1 AST)
Thompson 4' Layup (6 PTS) (Okogie 1 AST)
Who actually swung it
Players ranked by how much they moved the win probability, not by points scored.
Postgame read
DEN beat HOU 129-93 by 36 points.
The game turned at Q2, 0:02.2: Braun 31' 3PT Step Back Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Gordon 1 AST). That single play moved DEN's chance of winning from 71% to 84%. No other moment shifted the game more, and it went DEN's way.
No one influenced the outcome more than Murray of DEN. Across 35 plays, his actions moved the win probability by a combined 61 percentage points, the most of any player on the floor.
The tensest moment for a comeback came at Q4, 0:39.1, with HOU down 39 points. The model put their chance of pulling it off at 0%. In other words: nearly impossible, but not nothing.
The strongest run that didn't fully show on the scoreboard came at Q1, 7:24, with the game tilting DEN's way. The play in the middle of it: Murray 1' Cutting Dunk Shot (2 PTS) (Jokic 2 AST).
These numbers come from ClutchCast's champion model, the winner of a competition between six models. The winner is judged on how honest its probabilities are on games it never trained on, not just how often it picks the right winner.