The story of the game
Win probability after every play. Hover or drag to relive any moment.
Decided by 11 points with 8 lead changes and 12 ties. The game saw 8 major win probability swings, and the losing team's chances peaked at 69%.
Q3, 0:54.9, Williams (BKN): Williams 1' Tip Layup Shot (8 PTS). It swung the win probability by +14.2 points.
Q3, 8:42, Wolf (BKN): Wolf 28' 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Clowney 3 AST). It swung the win probability by -14.1 points.
Small (MEM) 11 pts
Turning points
The plays that moved winning odds the most.
Wolf 28' 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Clowney 3 AST)
Jackson 3PT Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Spencer 6 AST)
Wolf Tip Layup Shot (14 PTS)
Small 7' Driving Floating Bank Jump Shot (7 PTS)
Clayton Jr. 1' Driving Finger Roll Layup (7 PTS) (Spencer 8 AST)
Wolf 28' 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Traore 2 AST)
Who actually swung it
Players ranked by how much they moved the win probability, not by points scored.
Postgame read
BKN beat MEM 126-115 by 11 points.
The game turned at Q3, 8:42: Wolf 28' 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Clowney 3 AST). That single play moved BKN's chance of winning from 60% to 78%. No other moment shifted the game more, and it went BKN's way.
No one influenced the outcome more than Jackson of MEM. Across 35 plays, his actions moved the win probability by a combined 59 percentage points, the most of any player on the floor.
The tensest moment for a comeback came at Q1, 3:45, with BKN down 5 points. The model put their chance of pulling it off at 37%. In other words: possible, but not nothing.
The strongest run that didn't fully show on the scoreboard came at Q3, 7:01, with the game tilting BKN's way. The play in the middle of it: Powell 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Wolf 1 AST).
These numbers come from ClutchCast's champion model, the winner of a competition between six models. The winner is judged on how honest its probabilities are on games it never trained on, not just how often it picks the right winner.