The story of the game
Win probability after every play. Hover or drag to relive any moment.
Decided by 25 points with 4 lead changes and 13 ties. The game saw 3 major win probability swings, and the losing team's chances peaked at 47%.
Q2, 10:40, Wembanyama (SAS): Wembanyama 14' Turnaround Fadeaway Bank Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Champagnie 3 AST). It swung the win probability by +10.7 points.
Q2, 3:45, Harper (SAS): Harper 26' 3PT Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Johnson 1 AST). It swung the win probability by -10.3 points.
Green (HOU) 7 pts
Turning points
The plays that moved winning odds the most.
Johnson 26' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Champagnie 2 AST)
Castle 26' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Harper 2 AST)
Finney-Smith 24' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Thompson 1 AST)
Johnson 2' Driving Bank Hook Shot (7 PTS)
Fox 2' Driving Layup (5 PTS) (Castle 2 AST)
Harper 26' 3PT Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Johnson 1 AST)
Who actually swung it
Players ranked by how much they moved the win probability, not by points scored.
Postgame read
SAS beat HOU 145-120 by 25 points.
The game turned at Q1, 1:43: Johnson 26' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Champagnie 2 AST). That single play moved SAS's chance of winning from 50% to 61%. No other moment shifted the game more, and it went SAS's way.
No one influenced the outcome more than Harper of SAS. Across 23 plays, his actions moved the win probability by a combined 47 percentage points, the most of any player on the floor.
The tensest moment for a comeback came at Q1, 10:35, with HOU down 5 points. The model put their chance of pulling it off at 35%. In other words: possible, but not nothing.
The strongest run that didn't fully show on the scoreboard came at Q1, 5:59, with the game tilting SAS's way. The play in the middle of it: Harper 26' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Champagnie 1 AST).
These numbers come from ClutchCast's champion model, the winner of a competition between six models. The winner is judged on how honest its probabilities are on games it never trained on, not just how often it picks the right winner.