The story of the game
Win probability after every play. Hover or drag to relive any moment.
Decided by 39 points with 0 lead changes and 3 ties. The game saw 2 major win probability swings, and the losing team's chances peaked at 58%.
Q2, 0:35.2, Banchero (ORL): Banchero 3PT Jump Shot (23 PTS) (Bane 5 AST). It swung the win probability by +12.4 points.
Q2, 11:19, Penda (ORL): Penda 27' 3PT Step Back Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Bane 2 AST). It swung the win probability by -8.6 points.
Trent Jr. (MIL) 5 pts
Turning points
The plays that moved winning odds the most.
Carter 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Carter Jr. 2 AST)
Penda 27' 3PT Step Back Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Bane 2 AST)
Portis 26' 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Thomas 1 AST)
Turner 28' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Sims 1 AST)
Howard 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Bane 1 AST)
Banchero 3PT Jump Shot (23 PTS) (Bane 5 AST)
Who actually swung it
Players ranked by how much they moved the win probability, not by points scored.
Postgame read
ORL beat MIL 130-91 by 39 points.
The game turned at Q1, 2:57: Carter 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Carter Jr. 2 AST). That single play moved MIL's chance of winning from 36% to 26%. No other moment shifted the game more, and it went ORL's way.
No one influenced the outcome more than Banchero of ORL. Across 35 plays, his actions moved the win probability by a combined 54 percentage points, the most of any player on the floor.
The tensest moment for a comeback came at Q4, 0:03.9, with MIL down 39 points. The model put their chance of pulling it off at 0%. In other words: nearly impossible, but not nothing.
The strongest run that didn't fully show on the scoreboard came at Q2, 0:27.1, with the game tilting MIL's way. The play in the middle of it: Thomas 19' Step Back Jump Shot (9 PTS).
These numbers come from ClutchCast's champion model, the winner of a competition between six models. The winner is judged on how honest its probabilities are on games it never trained on, not just how often it picks the right winner.