The story of the game
Win probability after every play. Hover or drag to relive any moment.
Decided by 2 points with 5 lead changes and 17 ties. The game saw 3 major win probability swings, and the losing team's chances peaked at 99%.
Q4, 1:28, Williams (BKN): Williams 3PT Jump Shot (23 PTS) (Wolf 4 AST). It swung the win probability by +42.5 points.
Q4, 2:16, Williams (BKN): Williams 25' 3PT Jump Shot (20 PTS) (Wolf 3 AST). It swung the win probability by -10.1 points.
Sharpe (BKN) 6 pts, Williams (BKN) 6 pts
Turning points
The plays that moved winning odds the most.
Williams 3PT Jump Shot (23 PTS) (Wolf 4 AST)
Williams 25' 3PT Jump Shot (20 PTS) (Wolf 3 AST)
LeVert 26' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Jenkins 2 AST)
Robinson 26' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Duren 1 AST)
Robinson Free Throw 2 of 2 (15 PTS)
Porter Jr. Free Throw 1 of 2 (29 PTS)
Who actually swung it
Players ranked by how much they moved the win probability, not by points scored.
Postgame read
BKN beat DET 107-105 by 2 points.
The game turned at Q4, 1:28: Williams 3PT Jump Shot (23 PTS) (Wolf 4 AST). That single play moved DET's chance of winning from 64% to 33%. No other moment shifted the game more, and it went BKN's way.
No one influenced the outcome more than Williams of BKN. Across 32 plays, his actions moved the win probability by a combined 66 percentage points, the most of any player on the floor.
The tensest moment for a comeback came at Q4, 3:13, with BKN down 6 points. The model put their chance of pulling it off at 7%. In other words: very unlikely, but not nothing.
The strongest run that didn't fully show on the scoreboard came at Q4, 0:53.7, with the game tilting BKN's way. The play in the middle of it: Porter Jr. Free Throw 2 of 2 (30 PTS).
These numbers come from ClutchCast's champion model, the winner of a competition between six models. The winner is judged on how honest its probabilities are on games it never trained on, not just how often it picks the right winner.