The story of the game
Win probability after every play. Hover or drag to relive any moment.
Decided by 16 points with 8 lead changes and 21 ties. The game saw 11 major win probability swings, and the losing team's chances peaked at 70%.
Q3, 6:35, Claxton (BKN): MISS Claxton Tip Layup Shot. It swung the win probability by +21.0 points.
Q3, 5:47, Wiggins (MIA): Wiggins REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3). It swung the win probability by -20.8 points.
Williams (BKN) 3 pts
Turning points
The plays that moved winning odds the most.
Ware 25' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Wiggins 1 AST)
Porter Jr. 25' 3PT Jump Shot (19 PTS) (Traore 9 AST)
Clowney 25' 3PT Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Traore 8 AST)
Porter Jr. 25' 3PT Step Back Jump Shot (14 PTS)
Larsson 25' 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Mitchell 4 AST)
Clowney 25' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Traore 7 AST)
Who actually swung it
Players ranked by how much they moved the win probability, not by points scored.
Postgame read
MIA beat BKN 126-110 by 16 points.
The game turned at Q3, 5:45: Ware 25' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Wiggins 1 AST). That single play moved MIA's chance of winning from 46% to 68%. No other moment shifted the game more, and it went MIA's way.
No one influenced the outcome more than Porter Jr. of BKN. Across 53 plays, his actions moved the win probability by a combined 101 percentage points, the most of any player on the floor.
The tensest moment for a comeback came at Q3, 2:44, with BKN down 5 points. The model put their chance of pulling it off at 15%. In other words: difficult, but not nothing.
The strongest run that didn't fully show on the scoreboard came at Q3, 7:55, with the game tilting MIA's way. The play in the middle of it: Adebayo REBOUND (Off:3 Def:4).
These numbers come from ClutchCast's champion model, the winner of a competition between six models. The winner is judged on how honest its probabilities are on games it never trained on, not just how often it picks the right winner.