The story of the game
Win probability after every play. Hover or drag to relive any moment.
Decided by 8 points with 1 lead change and 15 ties. The game saw 85 major win probability swings, and the losing team's chances peaked at 69%.
Q4, 5:09, Brown Jr. (LAL): Brown Jr. 2' Reverse Layup (11 PTS) (Davis 6 AST). It swung the win probability by +20.0 points.
Q4, 6:52, Curry (GSW): Curry Traveling Turnover (P2.T12). It swung the win probability by -27.9 points.
Davis (LAL) 8 pts
Turning points
The plays that moved winning odds the most.
Lamb 26' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Thompson 3 AST)
Curry 29' 3PT Step Back Jump Shot (20 PTS)
Reaves 27' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Davis 5 AST)
DiVincenzo 29' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (D. Green 2 AST)
Brown Jr. 2' Reverse Layup (11 PTS) (Davis 6 AST)
Thompson 3PT Jump Shot (22 PTS) (DiVincenzo 6 AST)
Who actually swung it
Players ranked by how much they moved the win probability, not by points scored.
Postgame read
LAL beat GSW 113-105 by 8 points.
The game turned at Q4, 5:37: Lamb 26' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Thompson 3 AST). That single play moved LAL's chance of winning from 79% to 54%. No other moment shifted the game more, and it went GSW's way.
No one influenced the outcome more than Davis of LAL. Across 55 plays, his actions moved the win probability by a combined 130 percentage points, the most of any player on the floor.
The tensest moment for a comeback came at Q4, 1:55, with GSW down 5 points. The model put their chance of pulling it off at 10%. In other words: very unlikely, but not nothing.
The strongest run that didn't fully show on the scoreboard came at Q4, 4:25, with the game tilting LAL's way. The play in the middle of it: MISS DiVincenzo 2' Layup.
These numbers come from ClutchCast's champion model, the winner of a competition between six models. The winner is judged on how honest its probabilities are on games it never trained on, not just how often it picks the right winner.