The story of the game
Win probability after every play. Hover or drag to relive any moment.
Decided by 4 points with 13 lead changes and 34 ties. The game saw 27 major win probability swings, and the losing team's chances peaked at 91%.
Q4, 0:47.1, Ayton (PHX): Ayton Tip Layup Shot (9 PTS). It swung the win probability by +53.2 points.
Q4, 0:12.4, Durant (PHX): Durant 14' Pullup Jump Shot (35 PTS). It swung the win probability by -48.8 points.
Dončić (DAL) 7 pts, Durant (PHX) 7 pts
Turning points
The plays that moved winning odds the most.
Wainright 28' 3PT Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Booker 10 AST)
Durant 26' 3PT Jump Shot (33 PTS) (Booker 9 AST)
Paul 26' 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Durant 3 AST)
Wainright 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Paul 7 AST)
Hardaway Jr. 25' 3PT Jump Shot (21 PTS) (Irving 6 AST)
Wainright 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Booker 7 AST)
Who actually swung it
Players ranked by how much they moved the win probability, not by points scored.
Postgame read
PHX beat DAL 130-126 by 4 points.
The game turned at Q4, 2:07: Wainright 28' 3PT Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Booker 10 AST). That single play moved DAL's chance of winning from 64% to 34%. No other moment shifted the game more, and it went PHX's way.
No one influenced the outcome more than Durant of PHX. Across 44 plays, his actions moved the win probability by a combined 173 percentage points, the most of any player on the floor.
The tensest moment for a comeback came at Q1, 7:03, with DAL down 5 points. The model put their chance of pulling it off at 39%. In other words: possible, but not nothing.
The strongest run that didn't fully show on the scoreboard came at Q4, 10:23, with the game tilting DAL's way. The play in the middle of it: Wood Free Throw 2 of 2 (11 PTS).
These numbers come from ClutchCast's champion model, the winner of a competition between six models. The winner is judged on how honest its probabilities are on games it never trained on, not just how often it picks the right winner.