The story of the game
Win probability after every play. Hover or drag to relive any moment.
Decided by 4 points with 8 lead changes and 8 ties. The game saw 28 major win probability swings, and the losing team's chances peaked at 65%.
Q4, 3:48, Gobert (MIN): Gobert Tip Layup Shot (11 PTS). It swung the win probability by +24.6 points.
Q4, 4:24, McDaniels (MIN): McDaniels Tip Dunk Shot (19 PTS). It swung the win probability by -24.5 points.
Fox (SAC) 8 pts
Turning points
The plays that moved winning odds the most.
Conley 3PT Jump Shot (17 PTS) (Anderson 8 AST)
Anderson 3PT Jump Shot (18 PTS) (McDaniels 1 AST)
Lyles 26' 3PT Jump Shot (15 PTS) (Mitchell 1 AST)
Edwards 2' Driving Layup (24 PTS)
Gobert 1' Cutting Finger Roll Layup Shot (13 PTS) (Conley 3 AST)
Fox 14' Driving Floating Jump Shot (23 PTS)
Who actually swung it
Players ranked by how much they moved the win probability, not by points scored.
Postgame read
MIN beat SAC 138-134 by 4 points.
The game turned at Q4, 9:42: Conley 3PT Jump Shot (17 PTS) (Anderson 8 AST). That single play moved SAC's chance of winning from 45% to 22%. No other moment shifted the game more, and it went MIN's way.
No one influenced the outcome more than Fox of SAC. Across 41 plays, his actions moved the win probability by a combined 114 percentage points, the most of any player on the floor.
The tensest moment for a comeback came at Q1, 6:52, with SAC down 5 points. The model put their chance of pulling it off at 39%. In other words: possible, but not nothing.
The strongest run that didn't fully show on the scoreboard came at Q3, 1:51, with the game tilting SAC's way. The play in the middle of it: Huerter 29' 3PT Jump Shot (26 PTS) (Monk 4 AST).
These numbers come from ClutchCast's champion model, the winner of a competition between six models. The winner is judged on how honest its probabilities are on games it never trained on, not just how often it picks the right winner.