The story of the game
Win probability after every play. Hover or drag to relive any moment.
Decided by 7 points with 13 lead changes and 56 ties. The game saw 20 major win probability swings, and the losing team's chances peaked at 80%.
Q4, 4:13, Trent Jr. (TOR): Trent Jr. 18' Pullup Jump Shot (22 PTS) (VanVleet 7 AST). It swung the win probability by +19.9 points.
Q3, 0:23.1, Boucher (TOR): Boucher 24' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Trent Jr. 3 AST). It swung the win probability by -18.7 points.
Porziņģis (WAS) 6 pts, Trent Jr. (TOR) 6 pts, VanVleet (TOR) 6 pts
Turning points
The plays that moved winning odds the most.
Wright 27' 3PT Jump Shot (16 PTS) (Beal 10 AST)
VanVleet 3PT Jump Shot (22 PTS) (Siakam 8 AST)
VanVleet 3PT Jump Shot (25 PTS) (Barnes 5 AST)
Wright 27' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Beal 6 AST)
Trent Jr. 16' Step Back Jump Shot (26 PTS)
Wright 5' Driving Floating Jump Shot (18 PTS)
Who actually swung it
Players ranked by how much they moved the win probability, not by points scored.
Postgame read
TOR beat WAS 116-109 by 7 points.
The game turned at Q4, 0:30.1: Wright 27' 3PT Jump Shot (16 PTS) (Beal 10 AST). That single play moved WAS's chance of winning from 25% to 54%. No other moment shifted the game more, and it went WAS's way.
No one influenced the outcome more than VanVleet of TOR. Across 27 plays, his actions moved the win probability by a combined 152 percentage points, the most of any player on the floor.
The tensest moment for a comeback came at Q4, 2:43, with WAS down 5 points. The model put their chance of pulling it off at 13%. In other words: difficult, but not nothing.
The strongest run that didn't fully show on the scoreboard came at Q3, 9:29, with the game tilting WAS's way. The play in the middle of it: Beal 24' 3PT Step Back Jump Shot (12 PTS).
These numbers come from ClutchCast's champion model, the winner of a competition between six models. The winner is judged on how honest its probabilities are on games it never trained on, not just how often it picks the right winner.